Afghanistan is at a critical point, according to two draft reports by the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, which explain that any slackening in the international community’s resolve in the months to come could jeopardize recent progress.
“Patience, resolve and our shared commitment to the future of Afghanistan is what will help us and our Afghan friends make 2010 a decisive year,” Vitalino Canas told the delegates on Sunday at the Assembly’s Spring Session in Riga.
Recent security improvements have created a “genuine opportunity for decisive progress on the governance front”, he told the Assembly’s Civil Dimension of Security Committee as he presented his draft report, titled Governance Challenges in Afghanistan [link http://www.nato-pa.int/Default.asp?SHORTCUT=2085 ].  Both the national army and police are enjoying higher levels of public approval, the Assembly heard.

“Security, governance and development are all piece of the same puzzle.  Without security, there can be no governance and no development, and without governance and development, there can be no security,” said Canas, a member of the Portuguese parliament (Socialist Party).
His report was closely echoed by another, titled Partnering with the Afghan National Security Forces [link - http://www.nato-pa.int/Default.asp?SHORTCUT=2084 ], presented by British Labour MP Frank Cook to the Defence and Security Committee of the Assembly.
“It is my strong belief that we are generally on the right track,” Cook said, calling on the Allies for “resources, resolve and patience.”

The Afghan National Security Forces – a work in progress
Despite progress in Afghan National Security Forces, “deep and troubling shortcomings” continue to afflict both the army and police, Cook said, ranging from “leadership deficiencies, corruption, drug abuse and illiteracy through to equipment shortages.”
But the army is now “generally well-respected, broadly multi-ethnic, and increasingly taking the lead in operations,” he noted.  An “embedded partnership” approach, coupled with a newly established NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan, should help consolidate progress, Cook stated.
However, the report points out that “the effectiveness of embedded partners continues to be hampered by operational caveats,” referring to the restrictions placed by some individual Allies on their troops’ activities in Afghanistan.  The report calls for these to be reduced to the “absolute minimum possible.”
The Afghan police are lagging behind the army in terms of effectiveness, but here too progress is being seen, Cook said, in particular since the commander of the NATO training mission, US General William Caldwell, has made the police his priority. 
A significant pay raise, improved training and closer mentoring are already making a difference to a police force that has in the past been perceived as “malevolent and predatory,” Cook said.  A recent UN survey showed that, for the first time in decades, more than 40 per cent of the Afghan population say they can trust the police. 
Appropriate training can bring significant improvements, Cook said, giving the example of a police sergeant who used his literacy training to run a check on the number plate of a suspicious vehicle, which turned out to have been reported stolen by suspected terrorists.
Despite the progress, Afghan security forces need international support as much as ever, Cook said. “Even the Afghan minster of defence told us that the army is not at all ready to take over,” he said, referring to a recent NATO PA trip to Afghanistan.  And even when the security forces have built up the capacity to ensure the country’s security, Afghanistan is unlikely to have the funds to operate them for the foreseeable future, he added, pointing out that they received 5.6 billion dollars last year from the United States alone.
For these reasons, Cook said, he was absolutely not calling for a “run for the exit door,” warning that some international presence in Afghanistan would be necessary “for many years” even in the best case scenario.  “We have to give the good programs in place time to work.  Afghanistan will not and cannot change overnight.”

Afghan governance
While international assistance remains essential to consolidate the progress in Afghanistan, the country’s own institutions bear their share of responsibility, explains the report on governance compiled by Vitalino Canas.
Success will depend not only on foreign contributions to the NATO-led effort, but also on “the Afghan authorities’ ability to deliver on their reform commitments,” says the report.
The southern province of Helmand is a positive example of how strong local institutions can contribute to both security and development, it says.  “The leadership role played by Governor Gulab Mangal and the increasingly visible support demonstrated by key government figures, including President Karzai, have allowed major progress to take place in the province, including a remarkable drop in poppy cultivation and production.”
In Helmand, poppy cultivation has fallen by a third over the past two years, even if the province still accounts for 57 per cent of Afghanistan’s opiate production.
Across the country, the number of poppy-free provinces is increasing, from 6 out of 34 in 2006 to 20 in 2009, says the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). 
But further collaboration between the international community and Afghan institutions is needed if recent progress is not to be wasted, according to Canas’s report.  The poppy crop figure for 2010 could go either way, says the UNODC. The positive trend could be reversed if the security situation is allowed to deteriorate, it warns, but given the right conditions, as many as 25 provinces could be free of poppy by the end of the year.
Both rapporteurs underlined the importance of working towards a transition of responsibilities to Afghan institutions.  The upcoming elections would be an opportunity for these to prove themselves, and “restore public confidence,” said Canas. 
However, this “requires that Afghan authorities demonstrate their willingness and ability to address the major flaws revealed by [last year’s] presidential election,” he said.
The reintegration of certain Taliban elements into the country’s political and social structures is also critical, the reports said.  While elements of this project remain controversial within NATO, it is important to allow the Afghans to determine the makeup of their future government, the reports said.
With a peace jirga, or meeting of tribal elders, planned for Wednesday, and parliamentary elections scheduled for September, the Afghans have ample opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of their political institutions before the end of the year.
Timing is of the essence, said Cook, as everyone involved, not least the Afghans themselves, are keenly aware of the “ticking clock” since US President Barack Obama announced he would start to consider drawing down troops towards the end of 2011.  
The pressure is on both Kabul and the international community to consolidate the country’s institutions, and transfer responsibility for them to the Afghans as far as possible before then.
The two reports were discussed in draft form at the Assembly’s Spring Session, which brought together around 340 delegates from allied and associated countries in Riga from May 28 to June 1. The full programme of the Session is available at http://www.nato-pa.int/default.asp?SHORTCUT=2014.
The final reports will be debated and approved at the Plenary Session in November in Warsaw.


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